Europe and Africa Lead Global Recovery as Middle East Conflict, Rising Travel Costs and Air Connectivity Disruptions Temper Growth Outlook
International tourism maintained its growth trajectory during the first quarter of 2026, with 307 million travellers crossing borders worldwide, according to the latest World Tourism Barometer from UN Tourism. While global arrivals increased by 2% year-on-year, the pace of growth slowed amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, higher airfares, rising accommodation costs and disruptions to aviation networks. Despite these challenges, Europe and Africa emerged as the strongest-performing regions, highlighting the resilience of global travel demand in an increasingly uncertain environment.
Global tourism continued to demonstrate remarkable resilience in the opening months of 2026, with international tourist arrivals reaching 307 million during the first quarter, according to the latest data released by UN Tourism.
The figure represents an increase of approximately six million international travellers compared with the same period in 2025, translating into a year-on-year growth rate of 2%. While growth remained positive, the pace of expansion was notably slower than previously anticipated as geopolitical instability, particularly in the Middle East, began to exert pressure on global travel flows.
The latest World Tourism Barometer indicates that international tourism continues to benefit from strong underlying demand, although the industry is increasingly being challenged by rising transport costs, volatile fuel prices, air connectivity disruptions and broader economic uncertainty.
Middle East Conflict Reshapes Global Travel Patterns
According to UN Tourism, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has emerged as one of the most significant factors influencing global tourism performance in 2026.
The organisation noted that disruptions to air services operating to, from and through the region have affected travel patterns well beyond the Middle East itself. Higher oil prices, concerns over jet fuel availability and rising airfares have increased travel costs for consumers while creating operational challenges for airlines and tourism businesses worldwide.
UN Tourism now expects global international arrivals growth for 2026 to fall between one and two percentage points below its original forecast of 3% to 4%, depending on the duration and geographic scope of the conflict.
Commenting on the latest figures, Shaikha Al Nowais highlighted the wider economic significance of tourism during periods of uncertainty.
“The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is disrupting travel patterns well beyond the region itself, including rising inflation, particularly in transport and accommodation. This is placing pressure on travellers, businesses and destinations alike,” she said.
“Even amid this uncertainty, international tourism continued to show resilience in the first quarter of 2026, with 307 million people travelling internationally, a 2% increase on last year. At a time of growing geopolitical and economic pressure, this reinforces tourism’s wider role in supporting economies, creating opportunity and sustaining communities far beyond the sector itself.”
Europe Maintains Position as the World’s Leading Tourism Region
Europe retained its status as the world’s largest tourism destination region during the quarter, welcoming more than 130 million international visitors.
The region recorded a 4% increase in arrivals compared with the first quarter of 2025, supported by strong demand across both leisure and business travel segments.
Southern Mediterranean Europe and Northern Europe each achieved growth of 4%, while Central and Eastern Europe continued their post-pandemic recovery with arrivals increasing by 6%.
The results underline Europe’s enduring appeal as a global tourism destination, benefiting from extensive air connectivity, diverse tourism offerings and continued demand from long-haul source markets.
Africa Emerges as a Strong Performer
Africa also delivered one of the strongest regional performances during the quarter, with international arrivals increasing by 4%.
North Africa continued its growth momentum, recording a 4% increase overall and a particularly strong surge of 18% in March. Sub-Saharan Africa also posted a 4% rise in visitor arrivals.
The results reflect growing international interest in African destinations, supported by investments in tourism infrastructure, improved air connectivity and expanding destination marketing initiatives across the continent.
Mixed Results Across Asia-Pacific
The Asia-Pacific region recorded overall growth of 3% during the first quarter, although performance varied considerably between destinations.
Strong momentum in February, when arrivals increased by 9%, was partially offset by weaker results in March as aviation disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict affected regional connectivity.
South Asia experienced one of the sharpest declines globally, with arrivals falling by 27% during March.
Elsewhere, Oceania posted robust growth of 9%, while North-East Asia recorded a 5% increase.
Despite continued recovery, international arrivals across Asia-Pacific remained 11% below pre-pandemic levels, reaching approximately 89% of first-quarter 2019 volumes.
Americas Continue Steady Growth
The Americas recorded modest but positive growth of 2% during the first quarter.
Central America emerged as the strongest-performing sub-region, registering an impressive 18% increase in international arrivals, while South America experienced a slight decline of 1%.
Tourism officials remain optimistic that major international events scheduled for later in the year, including the upcoming FIFA World Cup 2026, could provide a significant boost to travel demand throughout the region.
Middle East Records Sharpest Decline
The Middle East was the only global region to experience a substantial contraction in tourism activity during the quarter.
International arrivals declined by 14% as conflict-related disruptions impacted airline operations, traveller confidence and regional mobility.
Several Gulf destinations reported significant declines in visitor numbers. However, Egypt stood out as a notable exception, achieving a 16% increase in international arrivals.
Despite the downturn, the region remains considerably above pre-pandemic tourism levels, with 2025 arrivals still estimated to be 40% higher than those recorded in 2019.
Emerging Destinations Drive Tourism Momentum
Several destinations reported exceptional growth during the first three months of 2026.
Among the strongest performers were:
- Paraguay (+46%)
- New Zealand (+45%)
- El Salvador (+43%)
- Mongolia (+39%)
- Palau (+37%)
- Uzbekistan (+37%)
The strong performance of these destinations reflects increasing diversification in global travel demand, with travellers increasingly seeking emerging experiences and less crowded alternatives to traditional tourism hotspots.
Tourism Revenues Continue to Rise
Tourism receipts also recorded healthy growth across several destinations.
Countries reporting double-digit increases in tourism earnings included:
- Pakistan (+60%)
- South Korea (+38%)
- Morocco (+24%)
- Brunei (+22%)
- Brazil (+12%)
These figures suggest that while growth in arrivals may be moderating, visitor spending remains relatively strong across many destinations.
Industry Confidence Moderates Amid Uncertainty
UN Tourism’s Panel of Tourism Experts identified geopolitical instability, rising travel costs and broader economic challenges as the three most significant risks facing the industry in 2026.
According to the survey, 64% of respondents reported that the Middle East conflict is negatively affecting tourism demand, while 61% said it is impacting inbound visitor arrivals.
At the same time, some destinations are benefiting from changing travel patterns, as travellers redirect trips away from affected regions. Approximately 17% of experts reported increased inbound tourism resulting from these shifts, while 14% observed stronger domestic travel demand.
The organisation’s Confidence Index for the May-August period, which includes the peak Northern Hemisphere summer season, declined to 105 from 117 recorded for January-April, indicating a more cautious outlook among industry stakeholders.
Aviation and Hospitality Indicators Remain Positive
Despite geopolitical pressures, key industry indicators remained broadly supportive of tourism growth.
According to the International Air Transport Association, international air traffic increased by 4% during the first quarter of 2026 when measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), although Middle Eastern traffic declined by 16%.
International airline capacity expanded by 2% during the period, though March capacity fell by 6% as carriers in the Gulf region reduced operations.
Meanwhile, global hotel occupancy remained stable at 64% in March, matching levels recorded a year earlier.
Europe, the Americas and Asia-Pacific all reported occupancy levels of approximately 65%, while Africa achieved 56%. The Middle East experienced the most significant decline, with occupancy dropping from 75% in January to 48% in March as the conflict intensified.
Resilience Continues to Define Global Tourism
While geopolitical uncertainty and rising travel costs are expected to remain key challenges throughout 2026, the latest data suggests that international tourism continues to display remarkable resilience.
The ability of travellers to adapt their destination choices, combined with strong demand fundamentals and continued recovery in major source markets, is helping sustain global tourism growth despite a complex operating environment.
As destinations and travel businesses navigate an increasingly uncertain geopolitical landscape, the sector’s performance during the first quarter underscores tourism’s enduring role as a driver of economic activity, employment and international connectivity across the world.
