India-UAE market loses more than 340,000 seats amid regional uncertainty, while Europe offsets global decline with strong capacity expansion.
Global airline capacity recorded a marginal decline in June 2026, falling 0.4 per cent below the same period last year, as continued disruptions in the Middle East weighed on international aviation markets, according to the latest airline frequency and capacity statistics released by OAG, a leading aviation data, schedules and analytics provider.
The report highlights that while the Middle East aviation sector showed signs of gradual recovery compared with May, capacity across the region remained significantly below 2025 levels, contributing to an overall reduction of approximately 2.1 million seats globally year-on-year.
Middle Eastern airline capacity improved from a 24.3 per cent year-on-year decline recorded in May to a 17.6 per cent reduction in June, indicating a partial recovery. However, the region still operated around 4.1 million fewer seats compared with June 2025.
The impact of the regional conflict was particularly evident in the India–United Arab Emirates corridor, one of the world’s busiest international aviation markets. Although the route remained among the largest globally with 1.94 million seats available during June, capacity declined by 14.9 per cent year-on-year, equivalent to a loss of more than 340,000 seats.
Europe emerged as the strongest performer during the month, adding approximately 3.8 million seats compared with the previous year, helping to offset capacity reductions in other regions. Strong demand across leisure destinations continued to support growth, with major European country pairs recording notable increases in available seats.
The Spain–United Kingdom market remained the largest international country pair globally with more than six million seats, followed by Mexico–United States with nearly four million seats and Canada–United States with approximately 3.25 million seats.
Among the world’s major airlines, Alaska Airlines recorded the highest frequency growth, operating 17.9 per cent more flights than a year earlier. In the United States, United Airlines expanded flight frequencies by 5.1 per cent, while American Airlines increased services by 2.4 per cent and Delta Air Lines remained largely stable with a modest growth of 0.2 per cent.
European low-cost carrier Ryanair maintained strong expansion momentum with flight frequencies rising by 6.8 per cent year-on-year, while easyJet recorded a 2.8 per cent increase. In contrast, Lufthansa reported an 11.8 per cent decline in frequencies following the closure of its CityLine operations, and Air France reduced flights by 7.2 per cent.
Performance among Middle Eastern airlines remained mixed. Emirates operated 15.1 per cent fewer flights compared with June 2025, while Qatar Airways remained around 16 per cent lower year-on-year, although both carriers showed improvement compared with May. Etihad Airways stood out as the strongest performer in the region, recording 11.1 per cent growth in Available Seat Kilometres (ASKs).
Outside the Middle East, LATAM Airlines Group reported strong ASK growth of 9.6 per cent, while Ethiopian Airlines expanded by 9.1 per cent compared with the previous year, reflecting continued demand across Latin American and African markets.
Domestic aviation markets presented a mixed picture. The United States, India, Japan and Australia recorded capacity declines ranging between 1 and 3 per cent year-on-year, while China remained broadly stable with a marginal 0.5 per cent increase. Canada led growth among major domestic markets with a 2.5 per cent rise, followed by Türkiye with a 2.2 per cent increase.
Several international markets continued to witness robust growth. The Japan–South Korea corridor registered one of the strongest performances, with capacity increasing by 14.3 per cent year-on-year. Europe’s leisure-focused markets also expanded significantly, including Italy–Spain (+11.9 per cent), Italy–United Kingdom (+10.9 per cent), Spain–United Kingdom (+8.2 per cent), and Greece–United Kingdom (+7.9 per cent).
Regionally, Europe remained the key driver of global capacity growth, while Central Asia recorded a 9.3 per cent increase and Central and Western Africa achieved a substantial 15 per cent year-on-year expansion. Meanwhile, North American capacity declined by 1.2 per cent, largely influenced by the collapse of Spirit Airlines, and South Asia recorded a 3.8 per cent decline as carriers moderated expansion plans across India and neighbouring markets.
The latest OAG analysis underlines the continued volatility facing global aviation. Although recovery is underway in the Middle East, geopolitical uncertainties, shifting airline strategies and regional market adjustments continue to influence capacity deployment worldwide. The resilience of European leisure markets and growth in emerging aviation regions, however, continue to provide important support to the global air travel sector.
