AI-powered forecast projects 3.17 million US tourist arrivals as Germany maintains strong appeal among American travellers
Frankfurt: Tourist arrivals from the United States to Germany could increase by 0.5% to 3.17 million in 2026, according to an AI-powered forecast by the German National Tourist Board (GNTB), as new research indicates continued interest in Germany among American travellers.
The forecast forms part of a recent GNTB assessment of the US market, based on an exclusive study conducted by market research institute Appinio. The research indicates that Germany remains a preferred destination among US travellers, despite growing sensitivity to travel costs amid economic uncertainty.
According to the study, 58% of travel-minded US respondents have visited Germany at least once, while a further 38% said they could imagine visiting the country in the future despite not having travelled there previously.
Petra Hedorfer, CEO of GNTB, said demand from the US remained high, although American travellers had become more cost-conscious because of prevailing economic conditions.
“Nevertheless, tourist arrivals from the US remained stable at the previous year’s level from January to July,” Hedorfer said, adding that the US continues to be Germany’s most important overseas source market.
Germany records strong destination perceptions
The Appinio research found that Germany has a strong image among US travellers.
Around 83% of respondents described Germany as an attractive destination, while 82% associated the country with a wide variety of tourist attractions. Around 81% viewed Germany as a safe destination and as a hospitable country with a strong culture of warmth and welcoming.
In addition, 77% considered Germany easily accessible and 75% said the destination offered good value for money.
The findings correspond with several attributes that US travellers consider important when choosing international destinations. Cuisine, architecture, regional traditions and cultural heritage were each identified by more than 90% of respondents as important factors.
Germany also performs strongly against these preferences, with almost half of those surveyed associating the destination with these characteristics.
US market remains commercially significant
The GNTB said the US market offers substantial economic value for German tourism businesses, particularly because of the spending profile of American visitors.
More than 60% of US travellers to Germany fall into the GNTB’s “Upscale Comfort” or “Premium Luxury”segments. These travellers are characterised by above-average spending on accommodation and special travel experiences.
According to GNTB estimates based on VisaVue Travel credit-card data from June 2026, visitors from the US generated the highest levels of consumer spending among Germany’s international source markets.
The GNTB’s latest assessment also identifies the US as Germany’s second-largest source market by overnight stays, with almost seven million overnight stays referenced in its market analysis.
Demand remains stable amid economic uncertainty
The latest findings come against a backdrop of economic and geopolitical uncertainty affecting international travel.
The GNTB’s broader market monitoring indicates that North American demand for Germany has remained comparatively resilient. Its August market update reported that overnight stays from the US increased 0.5% in the first half of 2026, while Canadian overnight stays rose 3.9% over the same period.
The organisation said connectivity and demand from North America remained stable, supported in part by air links between Europe and North America. At the same time, travellers are taking longer to make booking decisions, reflecting increased cost sensitivity.
The GNTB has consequently been focusing on the upscale segment in North America while maintaining close engagement with key travel-industry partners.
GNTB to host US travel industry leaders in Lindau
The latest research will form part of discussions at the GNTB US Advisory Board Industry Day, scheduled for September 29, 2026, in Lindau on Lake Constance.
The event will bring together representatives of the US travel industry, including tour operators, travel agencies and travel platforms, alongside German tourism partners. The programme will focus on current market developments, consumer trends and the latest tourism offerings in Germany.
The keynote speaker is Brennen Bliss, CEO of Propellic, who will address travel marketing in an AI-driven environment. The programme also includes market presentations and panel discussions involving organisations and companies including the US Tour Operators Association (USTOA), Tauck, Exeter International, Globus Family of Brands, Kuoni Tumlare, Tripadvisor, Lufthansa Group and Rail Europe.
Germany continues to strengthen inbound tourism
The US market outlook comes as Germany’s broader international tourism performance remains positive.
According to provisional Federal Statistical Office figures cited by the GNTB, Germany recorded 47.1 million international overnight stays between January and July 2026, up 1% compared with the same period in 2025. International overnight stays increased 3.2% year-on-year in July alone to 10.8 million.
For the US market, the combination of sustained travel interest, strong destination perceptions and high visitor spending is supporting the GNTB’s continued focus on the country.
The projected rise to 3.17 million tourist arrivals in 2026 therefore represents a forecast rather than a final arrival figure, with actual performance dependent on economic conditions, travel demand and developments in the international tourism environment.
