The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has announced full-year global passenger traffic results for 2020 showing that demand (in revenue passenger kilometres or RPKs) fell by -65.9% compared to 2019, by far the sharpest traffic decline in aviation history. Warning that demand remains sluggish into 2021, the association said that forward bookings have been falling sharply since late December.
IATA’s baseline forecast for 2021 is for a +50.4% improvement on 2020 demand that would bring the industry to 50.6% of 2019 levels. But it said there is “severe downside risk” if more travel restrictions are introduced in response to new COVID-19 variants. In this case, demand improvement could be limited to just +13% ahead of 2020 levels, leaving the industry at 38% of 2019 figures.
IATA Director General and CEO Alexandre de Juniac said: “Last year was a catastrophe. There is no other way to describe it. What recovery there was over the Northern hemisphere summer season stalled in Autumn and the situation turned dramatically worse over the year-end holiday season, as more severe travel restrictions were imposed in the face of new outbreaks and new strains of COVID-19.”
- International passenger demand in 2020 was -75.6% below 2019 levels. Capacity, (measured in available seat kilometres or ASKs) declined -68.1% and load factor fell 19.2 percentage points to 62.8%.
- Domestic demand in 2020 was down -48.8% compared to 2019. Capacity contracted by -35.7% and load factor dropped 17 percentage points to 66.6%.
- December 2020 total traffic was -69.7% below the same month in 2019, little improved from the -70.4% contraction in November. Capacity was down -56.7% and load factor fell 24.6 percentage points to 57.5%.
- Bookings for future travel made in January 2021 were down -70% compared to a year-ago, putting further pressure on airline cash positions and potentially impacting the timing of the expected recovery, said IATA.
Regional Markets (International)
- Asia Pacific airlines’ full-year traffic plunged -80.3% in 2020 compared to 2019, which was the deepest decline for any region. It fell -94.7% in the month of December amid stricter lockdowns, little changed from a -95% decline in November. Full-year capacity was down 74.1% compared to 2019. Load factor fell 19.5 percentage points to 61.4%.
- European carriers saw a -73.7% traffic decline in 2020 versus 2019. Capacity fell -66.3% and load factor decreased 18.8 percentage points to 66.8%. For the month of December, traffic slid -82.3% compared to December 2019, an upturn over the -87% year-to-year decline in November reflecting pre-holiday momentum that was reversed toward the end of the month.
- Middle Eastern airlines’ annual passenger demand in 2020 was -72.9% below 2019. Annual capacity fell -63.9% and load factor plummeted 18.9 percentage points to 57.3%. December traffic was down -82.6% compared to December 2019, improved from an 86.1% drop in November.
- North American airlines’ full-year traffic fell -75.4% compared to 2019. Capacity dropped -65.5%, and load factor sank 23.9 percentage points to 60.1%. December demand was down -79.6% compared to the same month a year ago, a pick-up over an 82.8% drop in November reflecting a holiday surge.
- Latin American airlines had a -71.8% full-year traffic decline compared to 2019, making it the best performing region after Africa. Capacity fell -67.7% and load factor dropped 10.4 percentage points to 72.4%, by far the highest among regions. Traffic fell -76.2% for the month of December compared to December 2019, somewhat improved from a 78.7% decline in November.
- African airlines’ traffic fell -69.8% last year compared to 2019, which was the best performance among regions. Capacity dropped -61.5%, and load factor sank 15.4 percentage points to 55.9%, lowest among regions. Demand for the month of December was -68.8% below the year-ago period, well ahead of a -75.8% decline in November. Carriers in the region have benefited from less severe international travel restrictions compared to the rest of the world, said IATA.
Regional Markets (Domestic)
- China’s domestic passenger traffic fell -30.8% in 2020 compared to 2019. It was down just -7.6% for the month of December versus December a year-ago period, though this was a deterioration compared to a -6.3% decline in November amid new outbreaks and resulting restrictions.
- Russian domestic traffic fell -23.5% for the full year, but -12% for the month of December, much improved over a -23% decline in November. Full-year results were supported by booming domestic tourism over the summer and falling fares.
De Juniac concluded: “Optimism that the arrival and initial distribution of vaccines would lead to a prompt and orderly restoration in global air travel have been dashed in the face of new outbreaks and new mutations of the disease. The world is more locked down today than at virtually any point in the past 12 months and passengers face a bewildering array of rapidly changing and globally uncoordinated travel restrictions.
“We urge governments to work with industry to develop the standards for vaccination, testing and validation that will enable governments to have confidence that borders can reopen and international air travel can resume once the virus threat has been neutralised. The IATA Travel Pass will help this process, by providing passengers with an App to easily and securely manage their travel in line with any government requirements for COVID-19 testing or vaccine information. In the meantime, the airline industry will require continued financial support from governments in order to remain viable.”
iata.org
