The outbreak of a new respiratory disease, which started in the Chinese city of Wuhan earlier this month, is causing quite a bit of alarm for some travellers. Like SARS and MERS, this new type of coronavirus (called WN-CoV at the moment, but expect a snappier name like WuRS to emerge as coverage increases) is spreading quickly via international air travel,
The United States’ Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (known as the CDC) has raised its advice from level 1 to 2 (of 3), which is the “Alert – Practice Enhanced Precautions” level. That’s not yet “Warning – Avoid Nonessential Travel”.
In the UK, Public Health England says that “the risk to the UK population is very low and the risk to travellers to Wuhan is low, but the situation is under constant review”, and it is taking precautions like screening passengers arriving from affected areas in a separate space at Heathrow Airport. Chinese authorities, meanwhile, seem to be advising against travel to Wuhan.
Be reassured: authorities have well-rehearsed plans for this kind of thing and are putting them into practice now. Temperature screenings are already routine in some areas, and you can expect the new kind of “fever guns” to be pointed at you at your departure airport, arrival airport, and even perhaps on the aircraft.
Expect airlines to make announcements about the illness, and to exhort anyone who feels ill to contact them. Flying when sick is a bad idea as a general rule, and airlines always have the right to refuse carriage to an ill passenger, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we see them doing so more at the moment.
What’s a coronavirus?
Coronaviruses are a family of viruses that cause infections in the respiratory system. There are seven known coronaviruses, including the newly identified 2019-nCoV. SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) was the coronavirus behind a deadly outbreak from 2002 to 2003, which infected 8,098 people and killed 774. MERS (also called Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), first identified in 2012, is another recent and ongoing coronavirus outbreak, with cases reported as recently as this week. Of the 2,494 cases and 858 deaths associated with MERS, most occurred in the Arabian Peninsula. The Wuhan coronavirus is different from these diseases, however, and it has never been seen in people before.
How Deadly Is This Disease?
The short answer is, we don’t know. If you look at the number of people reported to be infected (approximately 600, though this number is sure to rise) and compare to the number of deaths (17), you can calculate a number called the case fatality rate, which describes how deadly a disease is. Right now, the case fatality rate is a little under 3%. That means that 3% of people who become infected with the new coronavirus die. But this number is almost meaningless right now, since we don’t really know yet how many people are infected and how many deaths will occur in the coming weeks. One thing we do know: like many other illnesses, 2019-nCoV patients are more likely to die if they are old or suffer from other diseases.
How Did The Outbreak Start?
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says that initial cases of 2019-nCoV are linked to the Hua Nan Seafood Market in Wuhan. The outbreak likely started from a “spillover” incident when the virus was passed from animal to human. These spillovers happen through close human-to-animal contact, especially in markets where live and dead animals are sold for food. Ebola likely spilled over to humans from bats and nonhuman primates, MERS spilled over to humans from camels, and SARS spilled over from palm civets, small mammals considered a delicacy in China. The Wuhan market was shut down on Jan.1 to limit the spread of 2019-nCoV, but more cases have since been identified, meaning the virus can also be spread from person-to-person.
Take sensible precautions when travelling, wherever you are
This is not the first outbreak of a new coronavirus and it won’t be the last. Stay away from ill people, and if you get anything more than a mild cold and have been travelling or exposed to large groups of people (in a major world city, say) perhaps go to your doctor — but definitely call first, especially if you have recently been to areas known to have been infected, because there are special procedures to quarantine people at higher risk.
If someone’s coughing and spluttering all over the plane close enough that you can hear them, alert the crew and ask to be re-seated. It’s smart to avoid touching your face during and after using public transport, bathrooms — really, after touching things that other people have touched. Humans are, as a rule, not exactly diligent about washing their hands frequently, as anyone who’s been to a public restroom will know.
Since early suggestions are that the virus might have spread via a wet market (the sort of place where live animals and raw meat, seafood and other items are sold in the open), Avoid visiting anything like that.
Don’t travel to — or through — Wuhan
If you happen to be travelling to Wuhan, it might be an idea to see whether or not you can think about rescheduling your trip until after the outbreak is over.
Wuhan’s Tianhe International Airport has a number of international flights, particularly on on China Southern Airlines, but also with Air China and China Eastern among other carriers. With the number of international flights growing, you may well be connecting through Wuhan to regional destinations or even on the Kangaroo Route from Europe to Sydney.
Under the circumstances your airline may be quietly prepared to reroute you through another city.
