Global SAF Output Expected to Meet Just 0.8% of Aviation Fuel Demand as Net-Zero Challenge Intensifies
The global aviation industry’s transition toward net-zero carbon emissions is facing mounting challenges, with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) warning that production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) remains significantly below the levels required to meet the sector’s long-term climate goals.
According to the latest projections released by IATA during its Annual General Meeting in Rio de Janeiro, worldwide SAF production is expected to reach approximately 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, accounting for only 0.8 per cent of total aviation fuel consumption. The figures underscore the widening gap between current production capacity and the aviation industry’s commitment to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
SAF is widely regarded as the most critical tool for decarbonising air transport, with industry estimates suggesting that it could contribute around 65 per cent of the emissions reductions required for aviation to reach its climate targets. However, despite growing demand from airlines and increasing policy focus on sustainability, production growth continues to lag expectations.
Airlines Face Rising Costs Amid Limited Supply
IATA estimates that airlines worldwide will spend approximately USD 4.3 billion on SAF this year as carriers seek to reduce their environmental footprint and comply with emerging sustainability requirements.
Despite this investment, industry leaders remain concerned that supply shortages, inadequate policy frameworks and limited energy-sector participation are slowing progress.
Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA, described the pace of SAF development as disappointing and warned that the pathway to achieving aviation’s decarbonisation objectives is becoming increasingly difficult.
Walsh noted that five years after airlines collectively committed to net-zero emissions by 2050, SAF will still account for less than one per cent of total fuel consumption. He argued that ineffective policy sequencing, combined with insufficient engagement from energy producers, has hindered the development of a robust SAF market. He further stressed that recent global energy disruptions should have accelerated investment in renewable fuels, energy security and climate mitigation initiatives, but the necessary incentives to stimulate large-scale SAF production have yet to materialise.
Call for Coordinated Global Action
To accelerate SAF adoption, IATA has renewed calls for governments, fuel producers and industry stakeholders to work together on creating a stronger market framework.
The association believes that achieving meaningful growth will require a combination of expanded renewable energy production, increased access to fuel infrastructure, targeted investment incentives and internationally harmonised standards that facilitate SAF trading across markets.
IATA is also advocating for the broader adoption of a global “book-and-claim” system, which would enable airlines to purchase SAF credits regardless of where the fuel is physically produced or used, thereby helping stimulate investment and improve market accessibility.
E-SAF Targets Face Major Reality Check
Particular concern has been raised over the development of electro-SAF (e-SAF), a synthetic aviation fuel produced using renewable electricity and captured carbon through a power-to-liquid process.
While policymakers in the European Union and the United Kingdom have established ambitious mandates requiring approximately 600,000 tonnes of e-SAF production by 2030, IATA argues that existing production capacity remains dramatically below those targets.
According to the association, global e-SAF production capacity currently operating or under construction amounts to only around 20,000 tonnes, representing a fraction of the required volume.
Industry data indicates that only a single e-SAF production facility is currently operational worldwide. To meet planned 2030 mandates, approximately 20 commercial-scale refineries would need to be developed and commissioned within the next few years. However, IATA notes that no major final investment decisions for new e-SAF facilities have been announced over the past year, raising serious concerns about the feasibility of achieving mandated targets.
Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist, criticised current European policy approaches, arguing that regulatory mandates have been introduced before the necessary production ecosystem has been established.
She warned that imposing ambitious production requirements without first ensuring adequate renewable energy capacity and fuel production infrastructure risks driving costs higher while delivering limited environmental benefits. According to Thomsen, a more effective strategy would prioritise scaling renewable energy generation and reducing production costs before implementing binding mandates.
Travellers Continue to Support Sustainable Aviation
Despite the challenges surrounding SAF availability, consumer support for aviation sustainability remains strong.
IATA’s latest passenger survey, conducted in April 2026, revealed that 89 per cent of travellers believe the aviation industry should continue efforts to reduce emissions even if governments reduce their climate commitments.
The survey also found that 66 per cent of respondents are willing to pay more to offset emissions, while 88 per cent expect airfares to increase as airlines invest in sustainability initiatives.
When asked about preferred decarbonisation strategies, SAF emerged as the most favoured solution. Approximately 25 per cent of passengers supported increased investment in sustainable aviation fuels, compared with 23 per cent who preferred emissions-reduction technologies and 10 per cent who favoured environmental taxation measures.
Environmental considerations are also becoming increasingly influential in purchasing decisions. Nearly half of surveyed passengers reported that they consider carbon emissions when booking flights, while a substantial majority said an airline’s environmental performance influences their choice of carrier.
Decarbonisation Remains Aviation’s Defining Challenge
As global passenger traffic continues to grow and international tourism rebounds strongly, the aviation industry faces the dual challenge of meeting rising travel demand while significantly reducing its environmental impact.
Industry leaders agree that Sustainable Aviation Fuel remains the most viable pathway toward large-scale emissions reductions. However, without accelerated investment, stronger policy support and significantly expanded production capacity, the sector’s ambitious net-zero roadmap may become increasingly difficult to achieve.
The latest IATA projections serve as a reminder that while momentum behind aviation sustainability continues to build, translating ambition into measurable progress will require far greater collaboration between governments, fuel producers, investors and airlines over the coming decade.
